LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
November 03, 2025 10:20 AM
·
The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.
November 03, 2025 09:34 AM
·
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
·
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) shares his outlook on the developing U.S.-China Trade agreement, and the ongoing impact of the federal government shutdown—now stretching past four weeks—on rural communities and producers.
October 31, 2025 01:35 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss what the Carney-Xi meeting could mean for Canadian producers.
October 31, 2025 01:29 PM
·
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
October 31, 2025 01:17 PM
·
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
October 31, 2025 12:26 PM
·
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
October 31, 2025 11:44 AM
·
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
October 30, 2025 03:25 PM
·
