LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
September 23, 2025 03:34 PM
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