Markets
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tight Credit, Strong Yields Define Early December Agriculture
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
Record yields and exceptionally low BCFM strengthen U.S. corn’s competitive position in global markets.
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.