NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s ambitious effort to modernize farming through large-scale operations is running into a serious economic wall. According to analysis by retired USDA economist Fred Gale, falling crop prices, rising land rents, and weakening profitability are combining to threaten China’s grain production model — raising concerns that the country could face its own farm crisis even as U.S. farmers grapple with trade headwinds.
Corn, soybean, and rice prices have all dropped sharply this fall, with corn down roughly 20 percent from two years ago and soybeans off more than 23 percent. Futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange point to further declines into the year’s end. The downturn follows record imports of cheaper Brazilian soybeans, which have depressed domestic prices and rippled across feed and grain markets. Meanwhile, China’s official cost-of-production data already showed soybean, rapeseed, and double-crop rice farms losing money last year — before this latest price slide.
At the heart of the problem is scale. “New type” commercial farms now lease roughly half of China’s cropland and face steep cash rents — typically $330 (USD) to $670 per acre — along with machinery, fuel, and labor costs that far exceed those of smallholders. Many of these operators are now unprofitable, and Beijing’s silence on the issue suggests growing concern. Analysts warn that shrinking margins could undermine national food security goals, especially as authorities continue to push for higher yields and broader adoption of smart-farming technologies.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
·
China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
·
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
October 15, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Export Inspections In Bushels Show Mixed Momentum Patterns
October 15, 2025 11:38 AM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
·
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
·
