NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Several export reports have been released showing a number of soybean purchases to “unknown destinations” in recent weeks. One trader says that the buyer is most likely China, but the numbers are still coming in.
“We’re getting closer to seeing that magical 12 million tons being reached,” said Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions. “Now, the export numbers that came out yesterday had China as a buyer. Looks like, as far as that export number goes, they bought about 6.9 million tons. But we think, with these private export sale announcements that haven’t been factored into the weekly export sales numbers yet, we’re going to be closer to 10 million, 10 and a half million maybe, as we assume some of this is unknown destinations. It will end up being China.”
Purchases are one side of the equation, but so are shipments. Sam Hudson at Corn Belt Marketing has been watching the action for a while now and says it could take some time for the big picture to come into focus.
“We did see, I think, some shipments included into China over this past week, though,” Hudson said. “So, as long as we see that uptick and continue, then you’ll continue to see confidence in what those numbers are showing. But we’re still well behind on exports. It’s going to take another couple of months, probably, to get back to par here. And I think that gives USDA some ammunition to just kind of punt here. Same thing with corn. I think that puts the supply side in the driver’s seat if we see any major yield or acreage movements. Otherwise, we’re going to go right into trading South American weather after this report.”
USDA data show corn inspections led the charge recently, totaling 47.5 million bushels for the week ending January 1. Soybean inspections totaled 36 million bushels, down from levels this time last year.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
