NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s corn market is tightening as widespread mold damage reshapes supplies following what was expected to be a record 2025 harvest. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale reports that continuous heavy rains on the North China Plain left large areas unharvestable and caused mold or sprouting in grain brought off the fields — sharply reducing the usable feed quality of corn.
Early signs of tightness appeared in heavily affected provinces such as Shandong, where prices failed to decline after harvest, and some reports estimate that up to 70 percent of market-offered corn is too wet or damaged for feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces like Jilin and Heilongjiang harvested high-quality crops, but rail constraints and snowfall slowed movement into deficit regions.
For feed mills, deteriorating corn quality has spurred purchases of local wheat and higher-grade northeastern corn, and early inquiries into imported barley and sorghum, as they attempt to maintain rations amid a weakening livestock cycle. Southern feed users remain cautious and are keeping inventories light.
Regionally, China’s limited 2025 feed-grain imports — down roughly 90 percent year over year — reflect ongoing controls following last year’s abrupt halt in imports. Russia has become the most consistent supplier, while U.S. corn shipments remain minimal despite strong global demand.
Looking ahead, Dr. Gale notes uncertainty over whether low imports represent a new baseline or whether China will return to the 40–50 million metric tons of feed-grain imports seen from 2021 to 2024.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
November 24, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Lower U.S. and Mexican production means tighter sugar supplies and greater reliance on imports headed into 2026.
November 22, 2025 11:00 AM
·
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses industry reactions to the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger, the Surface Transportation Board’s review process, and current conditions on the Mississippi River.
November 21, 2025 01:59 PM
·
Richard Gupton of the Agricultural Retailers Association explains a new resource designed to help farmers comply with ESA-related pesticide label requirements.
November 21, 2025 01:56 PM
·
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
November 21, 2025 12:01 PM
·
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
·
Heavy rains are wreaking havoc on Argentina’s farmland, leaving nearly 4 million acres at risk and delaying corn and soybean plantings in one of the world’s top grain export regions.
November 20, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
November 20, 2025 12:53 PM
·
Ethanol exports are expanding on strong demand from Canada and Europe, while DDGS shipments remain broad-based and supportive for feed markets.
November 20, 2025 11:12 AM
·
