LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — China continues to play a decisive role in the international cotton market, even as it leads the world in production. For the 2025 crop year, Chinese output is projected at 31.5 million bales. However, the country still imported 5.3 million bales, ranking just behind Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Import patterns are dictated by government quotas, which allow 894,000 tons at a low tariff rate of one percent, while additional imports face a 40 percent tariff.
“So, in the case of cotton, they don’t have a lot of other countries to turn to other than the United States; there aren’t that many countries that grow that cotton,” Midwest Marketing Solutions President Brian Hoops told RFD-TV News. “You look at where they can buy soybeans from—well, they have a monster crop out of South America, both Brazil and Argentina this year. Big corn crops out of Brazil, record-large there. They can buy corn and soybeans from other countries.”
Economists with the University of Georgia and the Georgia Cotton Commission explain that these policies, along with reserve stock programs, can cause dramatic swings in demand from year to year. Heavy purchases in 2023 lifted global demand, but reduced China’s need for imports in 2024 while boosting domestic output.
Past examples, including the 2012–2014 period, demonstrate that reserve build-ups followed by cutbacks can exert lasting pressure on global prices.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: For U.S. growers, the uncertainty adds risk during harvest and marketing. China’s buying decisions continue to be a critical factor in shaping cotton prices and export opportunities worldwide.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
November 06, 2025 11:16 AM
·
The Court may limit emergency tariff powers, complicating a key bargaining tool; ag could see shifts in input costs and export dynamics as China, Brazil, and India talks evolve.
November 06, 2025 10:04 AM
·
RFD-TV expert Roger McEowen explains why a “skinny” Farm Bill is likely in the future, but its scope may change due to provisions contained in the Big, Beautiful Bill.
November 05, 2025 03:19 PM
·
U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics with global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level.
November 05, 2025 01:02 PM
·
The Sheinbaum–Rollins meeting signals progress, but the focus remains on fully containing screwworm before cross-border movement resumes.
November 05, 2025 10:18 AM
·
The first-ever “MICHELIN Guide to the American South” awards stars to top restaurants across Georgia, Louisiana, the Carolinas, and Tennessee, and pinpoints the region as a global food destination for the first time.
November 04, 2025 05:44 PM
·
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
November 04, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.
November 04, 2025 12:19 PM
·
According to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, the top three soy-crushing companies in Bangladesh agreed to buy $1 billion worth of U.S. soybeans over the next year.
November 04, 2025 11:17 AM
·
