NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coffee supplies are expanding in 2025–26, but tightening stocks and shifting production patterns continue to affect prices and availability for the U.S. market, according to USDA’s latest Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. World coffee production is forecast at a record 178.8 million bags, yet global consumption is rising nearly as fast, keeping ending stocks on a downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive year.
For the United States, the world’s largest coffee importer, supply dynamics remain critical. USDA raised U.S. coffee bean imports to 23.4 million bags for 2024–25, reflecting higher domestic consumption. With global ending stocks projected to fall to 20.1 million bags, coffee prices remain elevated, with the International Coffee Organization’s composite price index nearly tripling over the past several years.
Production gains are concentrated outside the Western Hemisphere. Indonesia’s coffee output is rebounding sharply, led by a 1.7-million-bag increase in Robusta production as weather and labor availability improve. Vietnam continues its recovery, boosting Robusta supplies, while Ethiopia posts record output on higher-yielding varieties. These gains offset declines in Brazil and Colombia, where drought, heat stress, and excessive rainfall reduced Arabica production.
Brazil remains the world’s largest producer, but its 2025–26 crop is forecast down 2.0 million bags, tightening high-quality Arabica supplies favored by U.S. roasters. With consumption still rising globally, USDA expects prices to remain sensitive to weather and production risks heading into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong global demand and falling stocks suggest continued price volatility for U.S. coffee buyers despite record world production.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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