LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Cull cow prices are holding unusually firm heading into late fall, bucking their normal seasonal decline even as beef imports and tariff policy dominate recent headlines.
According to Dr. David Anderson, Livestock Marketing Economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the market typically weakens this time of year as both beef and dairy operations increase culling after weaning and during herd management shifts. Those seasonal factors usually coincide with softer end-of-grilling-season demand, creating predictable price lows in the fall. But this year’s Southern Plains cull cow market has remained far stronger than expected.
Dr. Anderson notes that Southern Plains cull cow auction prices climbed to roughly $165 per cwt in June and have stayed near that level through the fall, slipping briefly before rebounding each time.
National average cutter cows have eased about $9 per cwt to $126, but live cow prices overall remain historically strong. The cow beef market, however, is acting more traditionally. The boxed cow beef cutout has fallen from $340 to $317 per cwt, and wholesale 90-percent lean trimmings have slid from $436 to $404 per cwt, both reflecting the usual fall decline in cow beef values.
Looking ahead, Dr. Anderson expects dairy-side culling to pick up. USDA’s latest report shows the dairy herd at 9.85 million head, the largest since at least 1993, with September milk production up 4 percent from last year.
Lower milk prices and strong returns from beef-on-dairy breeding are likely to pressure dairy culling higher, while beef cow culling should remain historically low due to tight cow inventories and incentives to expand. That combination — more dairy cows and fewer beef cows entering the pipeline — is expected to keep cull cow prices elevated deeper into winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than normal this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
September 25, 2025 11:51 AM
·
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
September 25, 2025 10:46 AM
·
On this week’s episode of
FarmHER + RanchHER, host Kirbe Schnoor travels to Wilson’s ranch to see how she blends tradition and technology to raise elite Red Angus cattle.
September 24, 2025 04:02 PM
·
Fewer placements and historically low marketings point to tighter cattle supplies ahead, with Nebraska and Kansas gaining ground as Texas feedlots face supply pressure and the threat of New World Screwworm.
September 24, 2025 03:40 PM
·
What is it like working cattle with an outbreak of New World Screwworm so close to home? Wayne Cockrell, with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, joined us on Wednesday to discuss.
September 24, 2025 12:29 PM
·
UNL Animal Science Ph.D candidate Anna Kobza joined us on Tuesday’s
Market Day Report to share her agriculture story and tips for other producers hoping to share their ag stories online or with the media.
September 23, 2025 03:24 PM
·
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
September 23, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Lamb prices have seen a surprising surge driven by a tight supply and increasing demand in non-traditional markets.
September 23, 2025 12:40 PM
·
“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
September 23, 2025 11:08 AM
