NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China’s newly announced safeguard tariffs on beef imports are less about foreign competition and more about self-inflicted market swings, according to analysis from Fred Gale, an economist specializing in Chinese agricultural markets. Gale argues that the move punishes trading partners for volatility caused by a series of internal shocks rather than by import pressure.
Beef prices in China rose roughly 20 percent between 2019 and 2021, largely driven by a massive pork shortage caused by African Swine Fever. That shortage spilled into beef demand, pulling in higher imports as prices climbed. Imports did not depress prices — rising prices attracted imports. When pork production later overexpanded, and China’s economy slowed amid COVID lockdowns, meat prices collapsed in 2023–24, taking beef with them.
Additional pressure came from a large dairy cattle cull in 2023, which flooded the market with more beef amid an already weakening market. With prices falling, Beijing turned to safeguard tariffs as a rescue measure, despite imports having already stabilized.
While global beef supplies remain tight, Gale warns China’s trading partners should expect continued policy swings driven by internal crises rather than predictable market signals.
From weather-related impacts to ongoing market volatility, producers across the farm sector are facing a wide range of challenges and risks. Many are turning to specialty risk insurance providers for guidance as they navigate uncertain market conditions.
Jake Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share an outlook on the cattle market and discuss what producers are watching closely in the months ahead.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Charleston provided a snapshot of the current cattle market, comparing prices and volumes with those a month ago. He also shared insights from his recent visit to the Joplin Stockyards sale, including what producers said about runs, bidding activity, and their plans for the next 60 to 90 days.
Charleston discussed the biggest price and margin risks producers should be monitoring right now, noting how volatility continues to influence decision-making. He also addressed whether producers are choosing to lock in protection early this year or taking a wait-and-see approach as market conditions evolve.
