Dairy Output Rises While Prices And Margins Weaken

Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dairy Market Report for September (PDF version) shows U.S. milk production climbed three percent year-over-year this summer, with milk solids up nearly four percent.

Strong cow numbers and per-cow yields boosted supplies, while butter output rose eight percent and cheddar production increased more than eight percent.

Despite growth, prices slipped as July’s all-milk average fell to $20.80 per hundredweight, down $2.00 from a year earlier. Feed costs also eased, but the Dairy Margin Coverage margin narrowed to $10.94.

On the demand side, domestic commercial use of all dairy products rose 2.2 percent, driven by yogurt and skim milk powders, though cheese use dropped two percent. Exports accounted for 17.8 percent of milk solids, the highest share since 2023, with butter shipments up 144 percent and cheddar exports up 83 percent. Imports remained below four percent, with butter and cheese both down sharply.

Looking forward, USDA raised milk production forecasts through 2026 but trimmed Class III, Class IV, and all-milk price projections, citing continued heavy supply pressure.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

Related Stories
Soybean farmer and Arkansas Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge highlights why the U.S. trade standoff with China is especially critical for Arkansas producers.
NEFB President Mark McHargue provides an update from the Husker State, where farmers are working hard to bring in one of the largest harvests in recent years.
President Donald Trump says a deal is nearly done on lowering beef prices, but he has not released details.
Large carryover stocks continue to put pressure on commodity prices, creating uncertainty for growers looking to market their grain.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
Cottage cheese sales are on the rise across the U.S., and industry leaders believe interest on social media is contributing to the surge in consumer demand.
A new proposal from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) could transform how farmers use drones, allowing commercial operators to fly beyond their visual line of sight.
“USDA can no longer keep wasting its time and personnel to deploy Commissioner Miller’s infamous traps, which USDA has deployed, tested, and has proven ineffective.”
Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.