Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge

Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.

corn crop aerial_adobe stock.png

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.

Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year.

Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Related Stories
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
Tariffs are pushing up input costs, with fertilizer prices rising $100 per ton and machinery costs climbing due to steel and parts duties.
Year-round sales of E-15 are another major topic on Capitol Hill, which, according to Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE), is one issue up for debate this session with significant bipartisan support.
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
As the White House works to close the trade gap, patience is wearing thin for some lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) says farmers are getting backed into a corner.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Considering raising your own replacements instead of buying bred heifers? Three key factors to consider before investing capital.
Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
Prepare for tighter cash flow, delayed capital buys, and policy-driven risk management this fall.
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
Crop insurance remains a vital tool for managing climate-driven risk.