Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge

Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.

corn crop aerial_adobe stock.png

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.

Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year.

Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Related Stories
The three-point plan was announced during remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture.
Higher tariffs may shield some U.S. crops but risk retaliation, lost markets, and higher costs for growers. The WTO disputes highlight the fragile balance between trade policy, farm exports, and input supply chains.
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
All eyes will be on today’s Cattle on Feed Report, which analysts say could give a clearer picture of where the market goes next.
Corn and beef exports showed strong momentum, cotton sales surged, and soybean sales held steady, though China remains absent from the U.S. market.
Cheaper freight is helping exports move, especially corn, but weaker soybean demand looms large.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
Harvest Marches on as River Logistics And Inputs Steer Bids
Farmers who rely on H-2A workers will see a few key changes to speed up the process and make it fairer. On the ground, producers say labor issues create shortfalls in otherwise productive harvests.
Industry leaders representing more than 40 nations gathered to discuss the future of ethanol and other corn-based products.
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.