Ethanol Output Slips as Demand and Stocks Shift

Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol producers saw a noticeable slowdown last week, a signal that fuel demand and blending trends remain uneven heading into winter. The latest EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows production falling 4.3% to 1.08 million barrels per day — lower than a year ago but still slightly above the three-year average. The four-week production pace held steady at 1.10 million b/d, equal to a 16.9-billion-gallon annualized rate.

Stocks tightened overall, dipping 1.9% to 22.2 million barrels, with inventories shrinking in every region except the East Coast and the Rockies. Gasoline supplied — a key proxy for consumer demand — rose to a 10-week high of 9.03 million b/d, though still trailing last year by nearly 4%. Meanwhile, refiner-blender net inputs of ethanol slipped 1.0% to a five-week low, marking slightly weaker domestic blending activity.

Exports were the week’s standout, jumping nearly 47% to an estimated 157,000 b/d — the strongest signal of external demand and the highest in more than a year. With no recent imports reported, the export bump helped offset softer domestic movement.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Lower hop stocks may support prices in the near term.
Biofuel policy decisions may influence planting economics. Today, March 18, is also National Biodiesel Day.
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
President Trump issues a 60-day Jones Act waiver to ease fuel shipments amid Middle East tensions disrupting energy markets, while biofuel policy gains focus.
Acreage shifts could influence spring marketing decisions.
Corn and sorghum exports continue outperforming soybeans.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Having a good read on fuel prices is a must during harvest, but one analyst says grain farmers should also be watching the crude oil markets.
National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew discusses the urgent need for aid as farm families face mounting input costs and long-term market uncertainty.
Bradley Roy was the youngest angler to compete in a Bassmaster Elite Series event. Now, he’s prepping to hit the water with MLF Hall of Famer Greg “The Rooster” Vinson in the Team Series Patriot Cup.
Stories like this remind us what FFA is all about — leadership, service, and growth.
The new antitrust agreement between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) aims to enforce antitrust laws and monitor market activity across the ag sector.
President Donald Trump says a deal is nearly done on lowering beef prices, but he has not released details.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.