NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets softened in mid-January as production declined and inventories climbed, signaling weaker near-term demand even as output remained historically strong. New data show pressure building on margins as gasoline consumption slowed sharply.
Ethanol production fell 6.4 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16. Despite the weekly drop, output was still 1.8 percent higher than a year ago and nearly 15 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average production rate edged higher to an annualized 17.42 billion gallons, underscoring continued run strength.
Inventories increased 5.2 percent to 25.7 million barrels, the highest level in 40 weeks. Stocks built across most regions and now sit slightly above the three-year average, adding to near-term supply pressure.
Demand signals weakened. Gasoline supplied fell 5.7 percent to a three-year low, pulling implied ethanol demand lower even as refiner and blender ethanol use rose modestly. Exports provided a bright spot, surging more than 80 percent week over week.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
A mid-January winter storm delivered snow, ice, and extreme cold to a broad swath of the U.S., disrupting transportation, stressing livestock systems, and adding cost and complexity to winter farm operations as producers look toward spring.
January 26, 2026 01:10 PM
·
Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
January 26, 2026 11:19 AM
·
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
January 26, 2026 09:41 AM
·
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
January 23, 2026 04:40 PM
·
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
January 23, 2026 01:54 PM
·
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
January 23, 2026 01:12 PM
·
