NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets softened in mid-January as production declined and inventories climbed, signaling weaker near-term demand even as output remained historically strong. New data show pressure building on margins as gasoline consumption slowed sharply.
Ethanol production fell 6.4 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16. Despite the weekly drop, output was still 1.8 percent higher than a year ago and nearly 15 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average production rate edged higher to an annualized 17.42 billion gallons, underscoring continued run strength.
Inventories increased 5.2 percent to 25.7 million barrels, the highest level in 40 weeks. Stocks built across most regions and now sit slightly above the three-year average, adding to near-term supply pressure.
Demand signals weakened. Gasoline supplied fell 5.7 percent to a three-year low, pulling implied ethanol demand lower even as refiner and blender ethanol use rose modestly. Exports provided a bright spot, surging more than 80 percent week over week.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
January 22, 2026 06:00 PM
·
Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
January 22, 2026 12:56 PM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
·
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
January 22, 2026 11:24 AM
·
Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
January 22, 2026 10:39 AM
·
