Ethanol Output Ticks Higher As Stocks Ease Slightly

Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.

breaking down ethanol 1280.jpg

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol production edged up to a five-week high as harvest advances. EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association show output at 1.07 million barrels per day (b/d) — about 45.11 million gallons/day — up 0.3 percent week over week, 3.1 percentcent above last year, and 4.2 percent over the three-year average. The four-week average eased 0.5 percent to 1.04 million b/d, an annualized pace of 16.00 billion gallons.

Inventories slipped 0.4 percent to 22.6 million barrels, yet remained 1.6 percent above a year ago and 4.1 percent over the three-year average. Stocks declined everywhere except the East Coast (PADD 1) and Rocky Mountains (PADD 4). Gasoline supplied — a demand proxy — fell 5.2 percent to 8.46 million barrels per day (b/d) (a 19-week low, ~129.97 bg annualized), 1.9 percent under last year and 3.3% below the three-year average.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol rose 2.6 percent to 915,000 barrels per day (b/d) (~14.07 bg annualized), 0.3 percent above last year and 0.4 percent over the three-year average. Exports eased 21.7 percent to an estimated 108,000 b/d (~4.5 million gal/day). EIA has shown no imports for over a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain challenges facing agriculture as snow, sleet and ice threaten most of the Eastern U.S.
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank, shares insights into current demand trends and the challenges facing broiler production.
Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Rising import pressure and tougher export competition are likely to persist into 2026, supporting domestic supplies while capping export growth.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
Rural population growth and stabilizing economic indicators point to post-pandemic recovery, but uneven income, shifting industries, and regional divides remain key challenges for rural communities.