Ethanol Production Falls While Demand and Exports Shift

Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production declined last week while demand softened, even as exports and blending activity showed signs of strength. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows production dropped 3.7 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly output since January.

Despite the weekly decline, production remained 1.1 percent higher than a year ago and above the three-year average. The four-week average also slipped slightly to 1.10 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest pullback in overall output levels.

Ethanol inventories tightened, falling 4.3 percent to 26.0 million barrels, with stock declines reported across nearly all regions. At the same time, gasoline demand — a key indicator for ethanol use — dropped 2.7 percent to a four-week low, though it remained above year-ago levels.

Refiner and blender inputs increased 1.6 percent to a 14-week high, signaling continued strength in blending. Ethanol exports also rose 3.4 percent, extending a trend of solid international demand.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower production and stocks may support ethanol prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Ethanol Exports Remain Strong Despite February Decline

U.S. ethanol exports eased slightly in February but remained historically strong. Shipments totaled 209.9 million gallons, down 1 percent from January but still 36 percent above last year.

Canada remained the top buyer, though volumes dropped 12 percent to a 10-month low. The European Union surged to a record 49.8 million gallons, led by strong demand from the Netherlands. India also increased purchases sharply, while Brazil pulled back from January levels but still exceeded last year’s pace.

Exports were broadly distributed across multiple markets, including Colombia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea. Year-to-date exports reached 421.9 million gallons, up 25 percent from the same period last year. Imports into the U.S. remained minimal.

Dried distillers’ grains (DDGS) exports declined 9 percent in February. Lower shipments to Mexico drove much of the drop, while demand improved in South Korea, Indonesia, and Morocco. Year-to-date DDGS exports remain strong, up 16 percent from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand continues supporting ethanol and corn markets.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.
Fertilizer investigation may impact input costs and margins.
The American Coalition for Ethanol reacts as the Farm Bill heads to a full House vote — while ethanol expansion, including year-round E15, is left out — as well as the USDA’s pursuit of global markets for ethanol.
Big oils-and-fats volumes can support crush demand, but fuel markets can quickly tighten supplies.
Mexican livestock officials are emphasizing surveillance and inspection systems to preserve access to the U.S. cattle export market. Texas’ Bovina Feeders explains the rising stakes as the border stays closed.
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum explains the role farm safety net programs play in supporting farm finances as growers head into the 2026 planting season.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

High fertilizer costs and global risks threaten spring margins for growers.
Heightened Chinese inspections increase trade volatility for U.S. livestock exporters.
Rail logistics remain supportive, with access to Mexico improving
Strong land values contrast with mounting credit pressure.
Restored base acres strengthen cotton risk protection.
Agriculture Freedom Zones reflect rising concern that data center growth must not strain rural grids or displace productive farmland.