NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — The upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is entering a critical stage as reports suggest the U.S. and Mexico may move forward first on negotiations while Canada risks being left on the sidelines.
While that is raising concerns across Canada’s agriculture sector, RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney says it is still too early to draw major conclusions.
“Agriculture depends heavily on a stable North American trade flow market. You know, Canada’s exports of agricultural goods to Mexico are up here in 2026, so this isn’t just a U.S.-Canada, U.S.-Mexico kind of agreement,” Haney told RFD News. “There are three countries that are in this trade deal. If the U.S. and Mexico align first, I think the stiffest issues or the thorniest issues — if you want to put it that way — are actually between the U.S. and Mexico, so it honestly makes a little bit of sense that is where a lot of the focus is. It doesn’t mean that Canada and the U.S. don’t have things to work out, but I do think it makes a little bit of sense to talk a little bit deeper with Mexico.”
Haney says that while it makes sense for the U.S. and Mexico to begin trade talks since they have more issues to discuss, Canadian officials are doing themselves a disservice by moving slowly and being less willing to negotiate.
“It’s been a little bit easy for the administration and the U.S. to make Canada the foil, that Canada’s not cooperative and not willing to negotiate,” Haney explained. “We’ve heard a lot of that from people like Howard Lutnick. The concern is not necessarily losing the USMCA entirely here, but I do wish that Canada would get to the table here a little bit quicker than they are.”
Haney says Canada may also face pressure on several agriculture and trade issues beyond dairy policy. The trouble began, he explains, when President Trump said Canada should become America’s 51st state, which frustrated Canadians and led to a huge drop in alcohol imports into Canada.
“The U.S. is also very frustrated with the provincial alcohol restrictions. Now I’ve been consistent on this,” Haney said. “U.S. Alcohol exports bourbon and wines to Canada, they are way down now — part of that is self-inflicted wounds — and all really stem from the president talking about Canada being the 51st state. That’s where all of this started. I do think Canada will have some give there. The interesting piece is that trade negotiations are being negotiated federally, of course, by Prime Minister Mark Carney and his trade negotiating team, but alcohol sales are in provincial jurisdictions. The prime minister is going to have to do some negotiating with those premiers. Alberta, one of the provinces that does allow sales of U.S. alcohol, I should note that. Canada wants relief from tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. Auto-related tariffs as well, where they’re like 25% on older vehicles, agriculture is really caught in a much bigger negotiation here.”
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to meet with Mexico’s president in Mexico City this week ahead of the official USMCA review beginning July 1.
