Ethanol Production Rebounds as Demand Signals Turn Mixed

Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued support for corn demand even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47.0 million gallons daily, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production ran slightly above last year and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace.

Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by Midwest increases, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages. That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome.

Gasoline supplied — a proxy for ethanol blending demand — declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns. However, demand remained solid compared to both last year and the three-year average, signaling underlying strength rather than demand erosion. Refiner and blender ethanol usage also stayed above historical norms despite a modest weekly pullback.

Exports cooled sharply after setting a recent record, but overseas shipments remain historically strong, helping balance domestic supply.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Higher tariffs may shield some U.S. crops but risk retaliation, lost markets, and higher costs for growers. The WTO disputes highlight the fragile balance between trade policy, farm exports, and input supply chains.
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the state of agribusiness and harvest progress across each region of the United States for the week of Monday, September 22, 2025.
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.
The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.