Expert: Basis Trends Upward Despite Mississippi River Levels Trending Lower

Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (RFD-TV) — Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

Biram joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to break down current river conditions, how they compare to previous years, and what they mean for barge freight costs as the industry moves deeper into the post-harvest shipping season.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Biram discussed where Mississippi River levels currently stand and whether these conditions align with typical seasonal patterns.

He said that right now, the river sits just below the critical level as set by the National Weather Service, but it is not nearly as low as we have seen in recent years. He also noted that, despite the river levels trending lower, they have not had an impact basis. Instead, the basis is trending upward.

Biram also outlined the latest outlook for river levels in the weeks ahead and explained the potential ripple effects on transportation costs and market timing if low levels persist. He also underscored the central role the river system plays in U.S. grain movement and how fluctuations can impact both exporters and producers, especially in the Southern U.S.

Related Stories
Lawmakers from Texas and Tennessee outline priorities for USMCA renegotiations, focusing on tariffs, China trade concerns, beef prices, and stability for U.S. agriculture.
Adequate transportation capacity exists, but fuel costs and soft river demand could widen basis risk.
Lower oil prices may trim input costs but pressure biofuel demand.
Tight storage could widen basis and limit marketing flexibility.
Cold-driven spikes in gas prices can quickly raise fertilizer and energy costs.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

National Land Realty’s Jeramy Stephens shares his outlook on farmland market trends, which remain under close watch as new federal assistance programs roll out — with experts analyzing potential impacts on land values, buying, and stability.
Michelle Perez shares more about the American Farmland Trust’s resource to help farmers and producers plan soil health improvements.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer outlines the key difference between previous ECAP payments and the Farm Bridge Assistance Program.
Jeff Johnston with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange explains the growing role of Rural America in supporting the nation’s digital infrastructure.
FFA Central Region Vice President Claire Woeppel joins FFA Today to share her story and excitement to connect with FFA members nationwide.
NRECA CEO Jim Matheson reacts to the U.S. House’s passage of the SPEED Act, which aims to streamline federal permitting for energy and infrastructure projects, and discusses its potential impact on rural communities.