NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — USDA export inspections, a report that continues during the Federal government shutdown, offer an early read on demand moving downriver and to port. This week showed firmer soybeans but softer corn, wheat, and sorghum versus the prior week, with year-to-date strength in corn and wheat offset by lagging soybeans and sorghum. These flows can influence basis, barge demand, and spreads as harvest advances.
Week ended Oct. 9: corn 44.5M bu (prior 67.0M; year-ago 20.2M), soybeans 36.5M (28.8M; 70.1M), wheat 16.3M (20.1M; 14.0M), sorghum 0.82M (1.31M; 3.17M). Major lanes included Gulf corn to Mexico/East Asia, Mississippi/East Gulf soybeans to Spain, Bangladesh, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Pakistan, and Mexico, and Pacific Northwest wheat (HRS/SWW) to Asia, with HRW moving via the Gulf.
Marketing year to date: corn 312.6M bu (+65% yr/yr), soybeans 148.5M (-26%), wheat 391.9M (+18%), sorghum 4.8M (-71%). The mix points to comparatively stronger pull for corn and PNW wheat, while soybean momentum will depend on sustained Gulf and interior rail flows and early-season vessel lineups.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect comparatively firmer corn and PNW wheat basis; soybean basis hinges on continued Gulf loadings, while sorghum remains light.
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
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