LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm export prospects have improved, but producers still face a large trade deficit and uncertainty over whether renewed talks with China will become actual purchases. AgAmerica Lending, citing USDA’s May trade outlook, says fiscal year 2026 exports are now forecast at $176.5 billion.
USDA raised exports by $2.5 billion from February, while imports are forecast at $205.5 billion. The resulting $29 billion agricultural trade deficit remains a reminder that higher shipments alone do not resolve trade pressure.
Grain and feed exports are forecast at $42.5 billion, supported by demand for corn, wheat, and sorghum. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected at $39.7 billion, while horticultural exports reach $42.6 billion.
China-related announcements may improve demand, but the outlook still holds U.S. agricultural exports to China at $12 billion. Producers also face competition from Brazil and uncertainty tied to tariffs and the USMCA trade review.
For farmers and ranchers, the next signal will be measurable sales, shipments, and lasting market access rather than proposed commitments. New buyers and stable agreements could reduce reliance on any single export customer.
