Farmer Sentiment Rises As Cost Concerns Continue Climbing

CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

1_national-ag-day_white house.png

President Donald Trump addressing farmers and ranchers on National Agriculture Day. (2026)

The White House

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA (RFD NEWS)Farmer sentiment improved in March, but rising input costs remain a growing concern. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increased to 127, up from 116 in February, reflecting stronger expectations for future conditions.

The improvement was driven largely by a jump in the Future Expectations Index, which rose 14 points. The Current Conditions Index also increased, though at a slower pace. Even with the gain, sentiment remains below levels seen earlier this year.

Concerns about input costs intensified, with 46 percent of producers identifying high input costs as their biggest issue, up from the previous month. At the same time, more farmers said the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and expect farmland values to increase over the next five years.

Financial outlooks remain mixed. Only a small percentage of producers plan to increase machinery purchases, while expectations for farm performance over the next year are split between improvement and decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Optimism is improving, but cost pressures remain a concern.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Farmer sentiment is improving despite ongoing economic challenges and input cost concerns. The latest Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month, signaling a shift in outlook across the agricultural sector.

CME Director of Agriculture Research Fred Seamon joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the report, providing his overall takeaways from the Ag Economy Barometer’s March report and what it may signal for farmer confidence moving forward.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon discusses what contributed to the latest increase in the barometer and whether the rise came as a surprise given current market conditions. He also highlights key findings from this month’s survey on inflation and interest rate expectations, offering insight into how producers are viewing the broader economic environment.

The barometer tracks whether farmers believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” and Seamon points out notable changes in sentiment on that front — with 65 percent of respondents agreeing. He also
Seamon notes that farmers were particularly optimistic about market opportunities in leasing farmland and solar energy production.

Related Stories
Last year was a busy year for pesticide litigation in the United States. At No. 10, it kicks off RFD-TV Legal Expert Roger McEowen’s list of the “Top 10” Agricultural Law and Tax Developments of 2025.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
USDA data indicates that 13.7 percent of U.S. households experienced food insecurity in 2024, the highest rate since 2014, even as most households remained food secure.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

U.S. dairy producers remain the primary growth engine globally, while tightening supplies in Europe and New Zealand could support export demand for American dairy products.
Fewer acres and stronger prices suggest disciplined hop production is supporting market balance despite lower output.
Benchmark machinery costs against those of similar-sized, high-performing operations to inform equipment and investment decisions.
Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Broader export demand helps stabilize prices and supports stronger marketing opportunities over time.
A narrower Section 1071 rule could reduce regulatory pressure on ag lenders while keeping credit available in rural communities.