Farmer Sentiment Rises As Cost Concerns Continue Climbing

CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

1_national-ag-day_white house.png

President Donald Trump addressing farmers and ranchers on National Agriculture Day. (2026)

The White House

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA (RFD NEWS)Farmer sentiment improved in March, but rising input costs remain a growing concern. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increased to 127, up from 116 in February, reflecting stronger expectations for future conditions.

The improvement was driven largely by a jump in the Future Expectations Index, which rose 14 points. The Current Conditions Index also increased, though at a slower pace. Even with the gain, sentiment remains below levels seen earlier this year.

Concerns about input costs intensified, with 46 percent of producers identifying high input costs as their biggest issue, up from the previous month. At the same time, more farmers said the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and expect farmland values to increase over the next five years.

Financial outlooks remain mixed. Only a small percentage of producers plan to increase machinery purchases, while expectations for farm performance over the next year are split between improvement and decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Optimism is improving, but cost pressures remain a concern.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Farmer sentiment is improving despite ongoing economic challenges and input cost concerns. The latest Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month, signaling a shift in outlook across the agricultural sector.

CME Director of Agriculture Research Fred Seamon joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the report, providing his overall takeaways from the Ag Economy Barometer’s March report and what it may signal for farmer confidence moving forward.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon discusses what contributed to the latest increase in the barometer and whether the rise came as a surprise given current market conditions. He also highlights key findings from this month’s survey on inflation and interest rate expectations, offering insight into how producers are viewing the broader economic environment.

The barometer tracks whether farmers believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” and Seamon points out notable changes in sentiment on that front — with 65 percent of respondents agreeing. He also
Seamon notes that farmers were particularly optimistic about market opportunities in leasing farmland and solar energy production.

Related Stories
Michael Kelsey of the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association joined us with the latest on the Oklahoma wildfires, recovery efforts for ranchers, and the role agriculture leaders are playing in supporting rural communities.
USDA’s 2026 Food Price Outlook projects food prices rising 3.1%, with higher beef costs and falling egg prices shaping consumer trends.
House Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson says the 2026 Farm Bill is bipartisan, with 82% of the bills incorporated into it receiving bipartisan support.
Land equity protects solvency but does not replace profitability.
Reliable canal infrastructure supports long-term access to global agricultural markets.
Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Ag leaders say President Donald Trump’s State of the Union is unlikely to spark major agriculture headlines, but ongoing tariff uncertainty and trade policy remain key concerns, as does the debate around glyphosate and the status of the next Farm Bill.
Cotton jassid, a invasive pest, is raising concerns for Southeast cotton growers as experts work to understand its impact this season.
Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.
Cash flow management and lender communication are becoming critical survival tools for farmers as tightening margins increase risk and borrowing pressure.
Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
RFD Farm Legal & Tax expert Roger McEowen shares guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, its impact on renewable energy and agriculture, and what producers should know moving forward.