Farmer Sentiment Rises As Cost Concerns Continue Climbing

CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.

1_national-ag-day_white house.png

President Donald Trump addressing farmers and ranchers on National Agriculture Day. (2026)

The White House

WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA (RFD NEWS)Farmer sentiment improved in March, but rising input costs remain a growing concern. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increased to 127, up from 116 in February, reflecting stronger expectations for future conditions.

The improvement was driven largely by a jump in the Future Expectations Index, which rose 14 points. The Current Conditions Index also increased, though at a slower pace. Even with the gain, sentiment remains below levels seen earlier this year.

Concerns about input costs intensified, with 46 percent of producers identifying high input costs as their biggest issue, up from the previous month. At the same time, more farmers said the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and expect farmland values to increase over the next five years.

Financial outlooks remain mixed. Only a small percentage of producers plan to increase machinery purchases, while expectations for farm performance over the next year are split between improvement and decline.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Optimism is improving, but cost pressures remain a concern.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Farmer sentiment is improving despite ongoing economic challenges and input cost concerns. The latest Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month, signaling a shift in outlook across the agricultural sector.

CME Director of Agriculture Research Fred Seamon joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the report, providing his overall takeaways from the Ag Economy Barometer’s March report and what it may signal for farmer confidence moving forward.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Seamon discusses what contributed to the latest increase in the barometer and whether the rise came as a surprise given current market conditions. He also highlights key findings from this month’s survey on inflation and interest rate expectations, offering insight into how producers are viewing the broader economic environment.

The barometer tracks whether farmers believe the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” and Seamon points out notable changes in sentiment on that front — with 65 percent of respondents agreeing. He also
Seamon notes that farmers were particularly optimistic about market opportunities in leasing farmland and solar energy production.

Related Stories
Margin pressure and competitiveness concerns are shaping cautious outlooks.
Leadership closer to western forests may speed decisions impacting timber, land use, and wildfire management.
More than 15 million birds were affected by bird flu, but fewer outbreaks are helping bring egg prices down
Fewer DEF-related shutdowns could mean more uptime during planting and harvest seasons.
Widespread drought and extreme weather leave producers managing limited resources
Rising fertilizer costs tied to tariffs are tightening margins for U.S. wheat growers, according to new data from the National Association of Wheat Growers.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

PLC and NCBA Chief Counsel Kaitlynn Glover reacts to the USDA’s new Grazing Action Plan, regulatory relief for ranchers, and the industry’s efforts to improve access to public lands.
Corn and sorghum exports remain strong; soybean demand lags.
Secretary Rollins is signaling a possible reopening of the southern border to Mexican feeder cattle as officials work to manage the threat of the New World Screwworm.
On this week’s Rural Health Matters, Dr. Jeffrey Gold raises awareness about Parkinson’s disease, shares insights on early detection, and offers guidance for patients and families in rural communities.
Nebraska Farm Bureau President Mark McHargue joined us to discuss wildfire recovery efforts in the state, impacts to agriculture, and conditions heading into the spring planting season.
Higher energy activity likely keeps fuel and fertilizer costs elevated.