NASHVILLE, TN (RFD NEWS) — Farmers are still facing high fertilizer costs, and some analysts say recent federal attention may not fully address the biggest near-term pressure points.
Josh Linville with StoneX says fertilizer policy is now getting the attention it needs, but much of the focus is on ammonia, potash, and phosphate rather than urea.
Linville says some announced production gains were already planned, while new ammonia capacity may not be aimed mainly at U.S. farm demand. He says urea remains one of the largest U.S. import needs and is more exposed to Russia, the Middle East, and other global suppliers.
Nitrogen supplies made it through spring better than feared, but prices remain high. Linville says reopening the Strait of Hormuz could pressure urea prices in the short term if stalled vessels move, but tight supply may keep values elevated into spring 2027.
Phosphate remains under greater pressure because ammonia and sulfur are major cost drivers.
Potash is the calmer market, with supply adequate but freight costs adding support.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Fertilizer prices remain vulnerable to global supply disruptions, and urea may deserve more policy attention.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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