KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD-TV) — Farmers are already preparing for spring planting as this year’s harvest continues, with rising nutrient prices raising concerns about limited supplies.
Josh Linville with StoneX says there is a lot of pressure on global inventories right now.
“It’s a big deal, just like it has been since February 28th. You sit there, and you just take a look at it, just a snapshot of the marketplace, three of the world’s biggest urea exporters—Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia—are behind the Strait (of Hormuz). The same three are big anhydrous exporters. Saudi Arabia is a major phosphate exporter out there. Just on the surface, just looking at those three, that’s a massive loss. With the attacks that went on this weekend, it doesn’t look like it’s improving anytime soon. The problem is, it’s always the devil’s in the details, right? It’s the fact that gas—so much gas comes from that body of water, and that gas goes to feed nitrogen production facilities around the world. That helps support or hurt global gas prices around the world. That’s why we’ve seen a little bit of European production go down.”
Linville says potash is also top of mind as trade talks continue with Canada. He says the future of those imports depends largely on successful USMCA talks.
“We’re watching this trade agreement very closely. Fortunately, for all the bluster on both sides of the aisle, both sides of the border, we’ve never seen anything actually go against potash yet. Therein lies our fear: if this trade agreement, if it continues to fall apart, we can’t find common ground, and we can’t get something put in place, I think both sides of the border go after potash. I think both sides of the border know how important the other side is for potash flows.”
Federal numbers show Canada supplies around 90% of the potash used in the U.S. Talks remain ongoing as the USMCA undergoes its yearly review.
