NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
·
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
October 15, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation joins us to discuss the idea behind the campaign and why accurate labeling on plant-based beverages matters to both consumers and dairy producers.
October 14, 2025 04:47 PM
·
Hughes shares how he’s preparing for the competition, his partnership with Bass Fishing Hall of Famer Mark Davis, and his journey from cattle ranching to professional bass fishing.
October 14, 2025 04:39 PM
·
Cottage cheese sales are on the rise across the U.S., and industry leaders believe interest on social media is contributing to the surge in consumer demand.
October 14, 2025 04:16 PM
·
“USDA can no longer keep wasting its time and personnel to deploy Commissioner Miller’s infamous traps, which USDA has deployed, tested, and has proven ineffective.”
October 14, 2025 01:19 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
·
