NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
·
Tammi Arender takes us to 3 Board Farm to meet some first-generation farmers who took a leap of faith and, in the process, found a new purpose.
October 13, 2025 02:11 PM
·
“Good flies? Is that like a good fire ant?” Miller said. “I don’t know what a good fly is. I don’t know if they’re afraid to kill house flies or stable flies, but I’m ready to kill the screwworm fly.”
October 13, 2025 01:28 PM
·
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
October 13, 2025 11:42 AM
·
Better yield measurement means fairer grids, more precise breeding targets, and more dollars for truly efficient cattle.
October 13, 2025 10:45 AM
·
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
October 09, 2025 05:10 PM
·
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
October 09, 2025 01:36 PM
·
Large animal veterinarian Dr. Rosalyn Biggs with Oklahoma State University warns producers may not be prepared for the real threat of New World Screwworm.
October 09, 2025 01:10 PM
·
Considering raising your own replacements instead of buying bred heifers? Three key factors to consider before investing capital.
October 08, 2025 03:03 PM
·
