NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.
October 01, 2025 04:24 PM
·
Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
October 01, 2025 04:02 PM
·
FarmHER Laura Adams raises cattle in Georgia, overcoming family tragedy with the help of Farm Dog of the Year, Skippy.
October 01, 2025 11:15 AM
·
October 01, 2025 10:02 AM
·
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
September 30, 2025 04:12 PM
·
Alan Bjerga, with the National Milk Producers Federation, joined us on Tuesday from Wisconsin with his Dairy Industry Outlook.
September 30, 2025 01:27 PM
·
Gov. Gavin Newsom has until October 12 to sign a bill passed by the California state legislature allowing E15 sales.
September 30, 2025 12:59 PM
·
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
September 30, 2025 12:25 PM
·
The USDA’s August Cold Storage report shows shifting stock levels across major dairy, meat, and poultry products.
September 29, 2025 06:21 PM
·
