LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Global beef trade policy changes are reshaping where product moves in 2026, increasing competitive pressure on U.S. beef exports while supporting higher import volumes. New quota structures in the United States, China, and Mexico are redirecting global supplies and altering price signals across key markets.
Beginning January 1, the U.S. tariff-rate quota for countries without a free trade agreement was reduced to 52,005 metric tons, while a new 13,000-metric-ton quota was established for the United Kingdom. The reduced “Other” quota filled rapidly — reaching 91 percent by January 5 — triggering a 26.4 percent out-of-quota tariff that encourages earlier shipments and higher imports early in the year.
China’s new beef safeguard quotas, paired with a 55 percent over-quota tariff, are expected to limit shipments from Brazil, Australia, and Argentina. With most U.S. beef facilities still lacking export registration, displaced product is likely shifting into Japan, South Korea, and the United States, increasing competition for U.S. exporters.
Mexico’s new 70,000-metric-ton quota for non-FTA beef may curb Brazilian shipments, offering some support to U.S. exports there, but also pushing additional global supply toward the U.S. market.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising import pressure and tougher export competition are likely to persist into 2026, supporting domestic supplies while capping export growth.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
January 20, 2026 02:47 PM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
Livestock strength is carrying the farm economy, while crop margins remain tight and increasingly dependent on risk management and financial discipline.
January 19, 2026 05:00 PM
·
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
January 19, 2026 04:00 PM
·
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
January 19, 2026 01:00 PM
·
While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
January 18, 2026 12:00 PM
·
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
·
