GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD NEWS) — Global trade growth is expected to slow in 2026, with rising energy costs and disruptions in the Middle East adding new uncertainty for U.S. agriculture and export markets.
The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade growth of 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, and could fall further if energy prices remain elevated. A high-energy-cost scenario could cut growth to 1.4 percent, while also trimming global GDP and slowing services trade.
Operationally, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are affecting fertilizer flows, with roughly one-third of global fertilizer exports typically moving through the region. Higher input costs and transport disruptions could tighten margins for U.S. producers while also raising production costs for key competitors like Brazil and India.
For U.S. agriculture, elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions may support export opportunities if competing regions face tighter fertilizer supplies and higher production costs. However, higher fuel and freight costs could also pressure U.S. export competitiveness.
Regionally, slower import growth in North America and Europe contrasts with stronger demand expectations in Asia and South America, key destinations for U.S. grain and protein exports.
Looking ahead, trade flows will depend on energy markets and geopolitical stability, with continued volatility expected across global agriculture.
