Grain Storage Growth Stalls as Crop Production Rises

Tight storage could widen basis and limit marketing flexibility.

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FarmHER Kris Walker (Walker Family Farms in Iowa City, Iowa)

FarmHER, Inc.

URBANA, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers may face wider basis swings and higher marketing risk as U.S. grain storage expansion has effectively stopped while crop production continues to grow. Economists at the University of Illinois warn that the imbalance could create bottlenecks across the supply chain from farm bins to export terminals.

From 2000 to 2019, national storage capacity increased about 350 million bushels annually, closely matching production growth. Since 2020, capacity has barely increased—only about 337 million bushels in six years—even as large crops returned. The 2025 harvest pushed storage utilization to some of the highest levels in decades, with on-farm bins about 80 percent full as of December.

Higher utilization increases the risk that transportation disruptions—such as low Mississippi River levels— will amplify local price discounts. Farmers are increasingly carrying more grain on-farm, shifting storage responsibility away from elevators while investment in new infrastructure slows.

Analysts point to higher construction costs, elevated interest rates, and uncertain returns as reasons expansion stalled.

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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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