Growing Trouble: Farm income drops as debt and machinery prices escalate

Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.

A new farm income forecast from the Economic Research Service (ERS) is out this week, showing a several billion dollar decline from estimates earlier this year. But in a call with farm reporters, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said it’s still too early to tell if farmers will need a bailout.

Farm-Income-Forecast-Sept-2025.png

Farm sector profits forecast to grow in 2025

USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Data as of Sept. 3, 2025

The income forecast indicates the amount of cash farmers and ranchers have available this year, which is less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated in February.

Also, a large number of borrowers are reporting trouble at the farm. New federal numbers show more banks are realizing some loans likely won’t be paid back.

Machinery Costs Break the Bank

Machinery costs are just one input cost that has increased over the last couple of years. Several universities have researchers looking into it, and they’ve found a 10% jump for some models.

Related Stories
Export funding aims to strengthen global demand for U.S. commodities.
Investment and access to capital remain critical for agriculture.
Strong ethanol exports support long-term growth in corn demand.
Transporting pollinator colonies—primarily honey bee hives—is a major logistical operation in U.S. agriculture. Costs can vary widely depending on distance, fuel prices, labor, and timing.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm CPA Paul Neiffer has developed a detailed calculator to help producers navigate the program’s requirements. He joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to explain how it works.
Henning Strauss, CEO of STRAUSS, joins us to share his company’s commitment to crafting tools that farmers wear.
Dr. Sally DeNotta with the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) provides horse owners with guidance on the recent outbreak of Equine Herpes Virus (EHV).
Rooster is a full-time farmhand, right-hand man on Shawn Raff’s cattle and dairy operation in Eatonton, Georgia.
While the 2018 Farm Bill received an extension under the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act, the National Pork Producers Council wants lawmakers to do more to support the sector.
Kip Eideberg with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers details its campaign spotlighting the people who build equipment vital to farming and food manufacturing.