NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. food manufacturers will rely heavily on Canadian oats again this year. Still, rising rail tariffs and tighter supplies are reshaping how those oats move into key milling regions. Since domestic output cannot meet demand for cereals, oatmeal, and granola, buyers remain dependent on consistent cross-border shipments — and transportation costs are increasingly driving the equation.
The United States imports nearly all its oats from Canada, with most shipped by rail to Duluth, Chicago, and major Midwest mills. A 2023 drought cut Canadian production, reducing rail volumes 26 percent and increasing reliance on truck and Great Lakes vessel shipments. For 2025/26, all major railroads raised oat tariff rates: BNSF by $100 per car and Canadian carriers by $175–$260 per car, depending on lane and volume.
Processors in Minneapolis, Cedar Rapids, and St. Ansgar now face higher freight costs, which are tightening margins and may influence sourcing decisions. Truck shipments remain steady but cannot replace rail capacity. Meanwhile, competition between rail carriers — especially over access to Cedar Rapids — has widened rate spreads.
Looking ahead, oat shipments will peak after harvest, but elevated freight rates and tighter supplies may suppress volumes into early 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Tony Saint James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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