Despite its continuously shrinking cattle herd, U.S. beef production is running a bit higher than expected this year. It has many worried about what is to come.
According to USDA’s Outlook Chairman, Mark Jekanowski, “We raised our steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025 this month. For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundred weight. We expect that to strengthen further into 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundred weight. That would be up $1.32 per hundred weight year-over-year.”
Jekanowski says that outlook is largely dependent on the decisions cattle producers have made over the last three years and are even making now.
“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle in to feed lots to produce beef today instead of beef months and years ahead,” he adds.
Some analysts believe next year’s prices could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back so to speak, finally triggering producers to retain more heifers for herd expansion.
The USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) has issued final Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) payments totaling more than $1.89 billion.
February 16, 2026 10:55 AM
Livestock Conservancy Senior Program Manager Jeannette Beranger explains the upcoming poultry census and ongoing efforts to preserve rare and heritage poultry breeds raised across the U.S.
February 13, 2026 02:20 PM
·
Alliant Chairman of Agriculture and former U.S. Ag Secretary Mike Johanns explains the R&D Tax Credit, the recent Tax Court ruling, and ways livestock producers and agribusinesses can qualify.
February 13, 2026 01:51 PM
·
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller joins us to discuss the cattle herd rebuild, trade concerns, and how ranchers would define “America First” policy priorities.
February 13, 2026 12:50 PM
·
AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub discusses the latest data on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings and what the troubling trend signals for the farm economy. At the same time, bigger loans and higher rates are squeezing working capital and increasing financial risk.
February 12, 2026 04:26 PM
·
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
February 12, 2026 03:29 PM
·
