MANHATTAN, Kan. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. winter wheat crop is drawing renewed attention from traders and analysts after condition ratings fell to their weakest levels in decades, raising concerns about yield potential heading into harvest.
Market analyst Brian Hoops said current ratings are the lowest since May 1989, even as the market has struggled to respond to deteriorating crop conditions.
“That’s now the lowest rating since May of 1989 for this winter wheat crop, and yet wheat market struggles in here,” Hoops said. “We’re seeing a little bit of harvest and not hearing very good yields. The market’s not responding to this positive news.”
Despite the weak condition ratings, Hoops noted the wheat market has not yet shown a sustained rally, suggesting traders may be waiting for additional signals, including harvest data and options expiration activity later in the month.
“This probably tells us we’re going to see a dip in here before we see a rally like a post-harvest type rally; usually that occurs in mid to late June,” he said. “Maybe the options have to expire first before we see that type of a rally, but at some point here, I think the wheat market may take another move higher. It really doesn’t have to ration demand. It just has to make sure that we don’t run out of supplies, and we had a big cushion going into this marketing here.”
This week’s USDA Crop Progress report shows 44 percent of the winter wheat crop rated poor to very poor, underscoring ongoing stress in key growing regions like Kansas.
Economists at Kansas State University say weather variability remains a major factor, with conditions described as “mixed and spotty” across the state.
Agricultural economist Dan O’Brien said some areas of Kansas have experienced significant crop abandonment due to drought stress, while other regions remain more resilient.
“With regard to moisture, generally, the favorite answer of anybody answering about Kansas conditions is that it’s mixed and spotty,” O’Brien said. “It’s just not consistent, but a lot of dry areas and lots of concern. Of course, we came out of a time frame when we were dry enough that we really did hurt the Kansas wheat crop in parts of the state. You know, when you talk about abandonment, I’m wedded to the idea of resiliency in Kansas wheat because it will surprise you year after year after year with producing more than you think it would.”
He added that estimates of over 20 percent abandonment may be high overall, but conditions vary widely depending on location.
“Estimates of 20-25% abandonment seem awfully high in terms of what we look at historically, but it really just depends on which part of the state you’re driving through,” he said. “We’ve had wheat in the central part of the state, where the wheat fields a month ago were yellow, which meant they had already been sprayed and killed off because they gave up on the wheat. They’re going to plant no-till corn or sorghum into it, probably.”
O’Brien says final yields are expected to come below previous years, with early estimates from the Kansas wheat tour placing production around 38.7 bushels per acre.
