Hog Supplies Tighten as Prices Ease, Production Holds Steady

The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Hog prices are easing slightly with Western Cornbelt caracasses down from the previous week. Pork producer profits have narrowed to about $64 per head, but margins remain in the black, and packers continue to run near full capacity, with utilization around 97 percent. Even with lower cutout values and feed costs, analysts say demand for pork remains steady and supplies are strong.

The latest Hogs and Pigs Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

“That gave us inventories as of September 1 and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are,’ said xxx. “And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”

That surprise has ripple effects across the market, with forecasts shifting as analysts weigh the latest numbers against producer demand.

Related Stories
Brandy Carroll with the Arkansas Farm Bureau shares an update on planting conditions and what producers are facing this season.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
Texas ranchers and lawmakers warn of renewed New World screwworm risks, highlighting prevention efforts, border concerns, and the role of sterile flies in protecting U.S. livestock.
Farm Bureau economist Danny Munch discusses the USDA’s request for feedback on data and research, how such requests work, and what farmers should know about submitting comments before the Thursday, April 9 deadline.
Georgia Ag Commissioner Tyler Harper explains the growing threat of invasive hornets in his state and what Southeastern growers should watch for this spring.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The FAO Food Price Index for October 2023 is out. Where do global food prices stand, and which categories saw the largest gains?
Agriculture Accounting Expert Paul Neiffer joined us Friday on Market Day Report to take a further look.
Falling feed costs and strong demand for butter could be good news for dairy farmers looking to get their finances back on track.
Author Lee Klancher joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to discuss a new, special edition version of his book, “Farmall Century” hitting the shelves in honor of the iconic tractor’s major milestone and impact on the ag industry over the last century.
In today’s production update, Total Acre Farming’s David Hula has an enlightening conversation with Jeremy Rountree about a new, industry-disrupting product from Brandt Fungicide.
What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of the split-interest transaction? And what are the rules when property that was acquired in a split-interest transaction is sold? That is the topic of today’s blog post by RFD-TV Agri-Legal Expert Roger McEowen.