Hog Supplies Tighten as Prices Ease, Production Holds Steady

The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Hog prices are easing slightly with Western Cornbelt caracasses down from the previous week. Pork producer profits have narrowed to about $64 per head, but margins remain in the black, and packers continue to run near full capacity, with utilization around 97 percent. Even with lower cutout values and feed costs, analysts say demand for pork remains steady and supplies are strong.

The latest Hogs and Pigs Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.

“That gave us inventories as of September 1 and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are,’ said xxx. “And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”

That surprise has ripple effects across the market, with forecasts shifting as analysts weigh the latest numbers against producer demand.

Related Stories
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
Crop insurance remains a vital tool for managing climate-driven risk.
Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.
Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, joined us to break down the latest data on Canadian farmland values and share insights on how it impacts producers.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Matt Brockman, Communications Director for the Fort Worth Stock Show and Rodeo, joined us with a look at how the legendary event is moving forward—weather and all.
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Roger McEowen, with the Washburn School of Law, offers an in-depth look at two of the top legal issues of 202. Today, he walks through last year’s Waters of the United States (WOTUS) ruling and “lawfare.”
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
RFD NEWS correspondent Frank McCaffrey recently spoke with Dr. Mike Vickers, a South Texas rancher, who says illegal border crossings have dramatically declined in the last year.