NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Oil prices remain largely unfazed by President Donald Trump’s latest efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In the last 24 hours, President Trump has said the U.S. military will begin “guiding” non-Iranian ships out of the region. That includes energy supplies and possibly vessels carrying fertilizers, as shown in photos released by U.S. Central Command depicting military efforts in the Persian Gulf.
Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures dipped on the news, but both are again over $100 a barrel on Monday morning. Diesel prices are not seeing any relief right now either. As of 8:00 AM ET, AAA shows it is holding at $5.64 per gallon, compared to $5.44 per gallon just a week ago.
Boosting Domestic Fertilizer Production Doesn’t Help Farmers Today
As fertilizer supplies wait for their turn to leave the Persian Gulf, the USDA continues its push to onshore production. Its latest plan boasts triple-digit gains for some key farm nutrients. While it sounds good on paper, one fertilizer economist says questions remain.
“I don’t quite understand how we’re going to get to that number,” StoneX Fertilizer Expert Josh Linville told RFD News last week. “I’m not going to act like I know everything out there. I’m hoping I’m missing something and she’s dead on. I just don’t know how we do it. Potash, we can do it, but you’ve got to remember, doubling the size of something where there’s not a lot of that produced isn’t that big of a number. Fortunately, we still have Canada to the north. They’re the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter. If we could just stay on good terms with them, we’re good on potash.”
The war with Iran has caused significant increases in fertilizer prices. The conflict began more than 60 days ago, and Linville says it’s become very frustrating.
“I’m a little tired. I’m a little frustrated,” Linville continued. “It’s been a hard year for me. And listen, I’m not even dealing with it like the farmers are, right? It’s not hitting my pocketbook like it is for them. But listen, I love the attention to the fertilizer market. This is exactly what we need. The market hasn’t really been doing anything to build it substantially from where we’ve been, even though we have capacity across a couple of products. So this push, if it helps reduce regulation and helps that kind of get to where it needs to be over the next two years, I’m all for it.”
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins estimates they can boost phosphate supplies by around 200 percent over the next two years. However, Linville warns that it could be difficult, saying the supply simply is not there to support.
The U.S. is raising new trade concerns over the European Union’s (EU) handling of intellectual property rules. The U.S. Trade Representative placed the EU on a watch list, citing issues with enforcement and protection of rights. The concerns center in part on the EU’s use of geographical indicators, which protect products based on their region of origin. The report also adds Argentina and Mexico to the lesser watch list after both countries made recent policy changes.
Another change outside Europe is raising concerns for U.S. agriculture, this time in the biofuels market.
A foreign ag service report says the proposal calls for phasing out U.S. beans by 2030. Last year, U.S. soybean exports to the EU were valued at more than $2 billion. The change would remove incentives for using soybean oil in European biodiesel production, potentially shifting demand away from U.S. agriculture.
This all comes as domestic year-round E15 sales are now set for a standalone House vote later this month after being removed from the Farm Bill, though despite support from ag groups and the administration, the policy’s outlook remains uncertain.
Emily Skor, the CEO of Growth Energy, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to discuss where the effort stands and what comes next for E15.
In her interview with RFD News, Skor addressed the current status of E15 legislation and what she sees as a potential path forward following its removal from the Farm Bill, and discussed ongoing opposition from some oil-state lawmakers and concerns raised in the debate.
Skor also outlined the year-round benefits E15 could provide for both farmers and consumers, particularly in today’s economic climate, and emphasized the importance of continued stakeholder engagement as the policy moves forward.
