LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.
Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.
Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.
For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
October 02, 2025 12:59 PM
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Chris McGovern from Connected Nation joined us Tuesday to break down the findings and discuss their implications for rural America.
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Gov. Gavin Newsom has until October 12 to sign a bill passed by the California state legislature allowing E15 sales.
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