LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.
Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.
Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.
For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
September 22, 2025 11:10 AM
·
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
September 22, 2025 10:52 AM
·
The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.
September 19, 2025 03:36 PM
·
Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
September 19, 2025 02:42 PM
·
Lawmakers and ag industry groups welcomed the confirmations, citing the direct impact of these leaders on western ranchers, water and land management, conservation programs, and regulatory reform.
September 19, 2025 01:21 PM
·
All eyes will be on today’s Cattle on Feed Report, which analysts say could give a clearer picture of where the market goes next.
September 19, 2025 01:01 PM
·
For rural communities, this shift could mean new housing options for farmworkers and young families priced out of metro markets.
September 18, 2025 11:37 AM
·
Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
September 17, 2025 04:01 PM
·
The EPA proposal laid out two options: fully reallocate all exempted volumes to the 2026–2027 standards, or reallocate half.
September 17, 2025 12:04 PM
·
