Improving Consumer Confidence Offers Cautious Demand Signal for Agriculture

Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.

Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.

Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.

For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
New Fed surveys show farmland values remain historically high, though some Upper Midwest markets are beginning to soften.
Fred Seamon with CME Group joins us to discuss the latest Ag Economy Barometer and the key economic pressures shaping producer sentiment in May.
IDA Texas’s Cooper Little discusses producer response to New World Screwworm in Texas, ongoing coordination with animal health officials, and the steps being taken to manage and protect livestock movement across the region.
The FAO report continues to serve as a key benchmark for global food market conditions, offering insight into how shifting supply and demand dynamics are impacting food systems worldwide.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Commercial performance will determine whether the specialty sorghum market can expand across poultry-producing regions.
Producers growing multiple spring crops should compare CLIP with individual coverage increases and county-based supplemental protection.
Improved coffee output could strengthen the U.S. supply, but input costs and weather risks keep the outlook uncertain.
Estimates for 2026 harvested crops remain early. Corn and sorghum are below their reference prices, while wheat and soybeans are above them.
Markets Analysts and Livestock Experts Say Screwworm Adds Costs for Producers, Not Food Safety Risks
Data centers will continue expanding, but local decisions will determine whether that growth protects agricultural water access or adds stress to already vulnerable production regions.