Improving Consumer Confidence Offers Cautious Demand Signal for Agriculture

Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.

Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.

Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.

For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
USDA says planting progress remains strong nationwide, though some soybean fields are still slow to emerge.
Trucking industry expert Lewie Pugh joins us to discuss rising diesel costs, challenges facing independent truckers, and the broader impact on agriculture and rural transportation.
The lower outlook follows months of drought stress across major winter wheat regions, where some producers have abandoned fields or shifted acres to grazing instead of harvest.
Cattle producers may get some credit relief, but land and facility borrowing costs likely remain high.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Jake Charleston from Specialty Risk Insurance Agency recapped an Oklahoma auctioneer contest and recent industry events, showing how stakeholder feedback helps insurers gauge market conditions and risk management needs.
Cattle-on-Feed is down on the year in the USDA’s April report, with lower placements and marketings signaling tighter feedlot activity.
Steven Snow with the U.S. Small Business Administration joined us to discuss tax relief for rural Americans and the long-term benefits of new provisions impacting farmers and small businesses.
Rising global supplies may cap soybean price strength, while sorghum prices hinge heavily on China’s export demand.
Strong ethanol output supports corn demand despite export weakness.
Strong crush margins — now at multi-year highs — are encouraging processors to expand production.