Improving Consumer Confidence Offers Cautious Demand Signal for Agriculture

Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.

Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.

Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.

For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Here are the top agriculture news headlines from RFD-TV News today (Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025) and the top trending stories on RFD-TV News.
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced her five-point comprehensive strategy to fight High-Path Avian Flu (HPAI) on Wednesday in an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Expect business-as-usual for most container exports.
Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.
Considering raising your own replacements instead of buying bred heifers? Three key factors to consider before investing capital.
Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
Prepare for tighter cash flow, delayed capital buys, and policy-driven risk management this fall.