NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Nitrogen and phosphate markets are firming sharply heading into spring, raising cost concerns for producers already facing flat grain prices, according to analysis from Stone-X Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.
India has announced another major urea purchase tender targeting 1.5 million tons for shipment through March 31. While widely expected, the move is seen as supportive of global prices and could tighten supplies just as North American farmers finalize spring planting. Urea values at the Gulf have climbed from a December low near $350 per ton to as high as $465. That compares with $389 a year ago. UAN is trading near $325 versus $265 last year, and Midwest ammonia averages $695 compared to $605 last year — even as grain prices remain lower year over year.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical risk. Three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters depend on that corridor, along with Saudi phosphate shipments. Any disruption could significantly impact fertilizer flows.
Phosphate markets are also firm. Global prices are up roughly $20, and limited Chinese exports — typically 8 to 10 million tons annually but just 5.3 million last year — leave a potential supply gap. High ammonia and sulfur costs are limiting downside price potential, even if values soften.
Potash remains comparatively stable and better aligned with grain economics.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Grain farms still have strong balance sheets, but another stretch of low profits will force hard cost cuts, especially on high-rent, highly leveraged operations.
December 09, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
December 09, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Joe Peiffer with Ag & Business Legal Strategies advises farmers on end-of-year financial planning, including preparing records, avoiding common credit mistakes, and evaluating equipment purchases for 2026.
December 08, 2025 04:43 PM
·
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
December 08, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Record yields and exceptionally low BCFM strengthen U.S. corn’s competitive position in global markets.
December 08, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
December 05, 2025 02:18 PM
·
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
December 04, 2025 02:59 PM
·
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
December 04, 2025 02:50 PM
·
