NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Nitrogen and phosphate markets are firming sharply heading into spring, raising cost concerns for producers already facing flat grain prices, according to analysis from Stone-X Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.
India has announced another major urea purchase tender targeting 1.5 million tons for shipment through March 31. While widely expected, the move is seen as supportive of global prices and could tighten supplies just as North American farmers finalize spring planting. Urea values at the Gulf have climbed from a December low near $350 per ton to as high as $465. That compares with $389 a year ago. UAN is trading near $325 versus $265 last year, and Midwest ammonia averages $695 compared to $605 last year — even as grain prices remain lower year over year.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical risk. Three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters depend on that corridor, along with Saudi phosphate shipments. Any disruption could significantly impact fertilizer flows.
Phosphate markets are also firm. Global prices are up roughly $20, and limited Chinese exports — typically 8 to 10 million tons annually but just 5.3 million last year — leave a potential supply gap. High ammonia and sulfur costs are limiting downside price potential, even if values soften.
Potash remains comparatively stable and better aligned with grain economics.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
October 28, 2025 12:00 PM
·
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
October 28, 2025 11:28 AM
·
The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
October 28, 2025 11:20 AM
·
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
October 28, 2025 11:01 AM
·
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
October 28, 2025 10:58 AM
·
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.
October 27, 2025 12:12 PM
·
