Insights into Brazil’s impact on U.S. corn and soybean markets

Weather is having a big effect on soy and corn production in Brazil. Here’s what it means for the U.S. markets, according to experts.

As South American weather takes center stage in the agricultural realm, John Heinberg, a market advisor with Total Farm Marketing, provides insights into the current conditions in Brazil and the consequential impact on the U.S. corn and soybean markets. Emphasizing the pivotal role weather plays during this season, he noted recent rains in key Brazilian areas.

Highlighting the challenges faced by Brazilian farmers, Heinberg says the difficulty in determining the extent of production losses amid reports of failing crops. Despite setbacks, Brazil’s immense size means there are regions still in the planning stage while others are in the harvesting phase, complicating projections for overall production.

The market anticipates Brazil’s soybean crop to reach around 150 million metric tons, a decrease of about 15 million metric tons. However, Heinberg notes that, even with this reduction, the 2021 production would still surpass the current year’s estimates. With Argentina expected to rebound from a two-year drought, the market faces continued pressure on prices, impacting demand.

Heinberg suggests that, despite the challenges, Brazil is not currently the most cost-effective option. He points to the U.S. as the “only game in town” presently, signaling a potential uptick in market activity as growers gear up for the 2024 crop.


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