LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — U.S. interest rate relief in 2026 is likely to be modest, with only limited cuts expected as the Federal Reserve balances easing inflation against labor market conditions. According to an analysis by Andrew Wright, an assistant professor and extension economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the Federal Reserve is signaling caution rather than a rapid shift toward lower borrowing costs.
After aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and gradual easing beginning in late 2024, the federal funds rate held mostly steady through 2025 before modest cuts resumed in the fall. The Federal Open Market Committee’s latest projections show broad agreement on economic growth and inflation, but less consensus on how far rates should fall. The median outlook suggests a single quarter-point rate cut sometime in the second half of 2026.
If that path holds, the federal funds rate would likely move from roughly 3.5–3.75 percent early in the year to around 3.25–3.5 percent later in 2026. Agricultural lending rates typically track 4–5 percentage points above the federal funds rate, implying operating loan rates could remain in the mid-to-upper 7 percent range, with real estate and intermediate loans slightly lower.
Wright notes that actual borrowing costs will continue to vary widely based on lender relationships, balance sheets, and borrower risk profiles, keeping credit discipline front and center for producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
U.S. Farmers Face Shifting Harvest Pace, Basis, and Input Costs
October 15, 2025 10:47 AM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
·
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
·
For rural borrowers, freeing up community-bank balance sheets could mean steadier home loans, operating lines, and ag real-estate financing as winter planning ramps up.
October 13, 2025 04:08 PM
·
President Trump has long supported a direct line from Alberta’s oil fields to the Midwest.
October 13, 2025 01:21 PM
·
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
October 13, 2025 11:42 AM
·
